The Rise of One Nation: Australia's Conservatives Face a Formidable Challenger
In the aftermath of the previous year's federal election, a narrative emerged that presented a glimmer of hope for the struggling Coalition. With One Nation's popularity on the rise, the narrative suggested that preferences from Pauline Hanson's supporters could tip the scales in favor of the Liberals, potentially defeating Labor in working-class seats in outer suburbs and regions.
A Liberal insider's quote in the Australian Financial Review hinted at a shift in public perception, stating, "Aunty Pauline is now acceptable." This implied that Hanson's right-wing party had gained traction and could be a powerful electoral tool for the Coalition.
But the narrative took an unexpected turn as opposition leader Peter Dutton's suburban strategy failed spectacularly on polling day.
Nine months later, the story of One Nation's influence on the Coalition continues, but with a twist. It's no longer just a narrative; it's a reality. Pollsters and political insiders reveal that financial strain and disillusionment with the major parties, especially the Coalition, are driving voters towards Hanson's hardline brand of right-wing populism.
But here's where it gets controversial: How much impact can One Nation have on reshaping Australia's political landscape?
The Guardian Essential poll reveals a significant surge in One Nation's primary vote, reaching 22%, a threefold increase since the 2025 election and just three points behind the Coalition. Peter Lewis, a director at Essential Media, suggests that this support reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the major parties, particularly the Liberals and Nationals, rather than a firm voting intention, as the next federal election is still two years away.
However, Lewis emphasizes that this rise in support cannot be ignored. He attributes it to global trends, stating, "The rise in support for One Nation is not trivial. It mirrors shifts in the UK, Europe, and the US, where populist movements challenge mainstream parties' handling of global capitalism."
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist-turned-pollster, offers further insight. He explains that One Nation has become a haven for voters who prioritize cultural issues. "Many voters, especially in the last decade, have faced financial stress and declining living standards. They've lost faith in the Coalition, which they once supported for its economic management. Now, they're voting based on cultural grievances, and One Nation is their chosen vehicle."
A closer look at the Essential poll data reveals that One Nation's growth is primarily due to Coalition voters moving further to the political right. A notable 23% of 2025 Coalition voters now intend to support One Nation, while 8% of former Labor voters have switched to Hanson, a smaller but significant shift.
John Roskam, a former executive director of the right-wing think tank Institute of Public Affairs, points out the Liberal Party's complacency. "The Liberal Party has underestimated the risk of losing votes to its right flank. They believed Liberal voters wouldn't support One Nation, but it's clear they can and will."
One Nation's appeal is not limited to a specific demographic. While its base remains outside capital cities and among non-university-educated, middle-to-low-income earners, recent polls challenge stereotypes. One Nation is attracting more female voters (23% vs. 21% for the Coalition) and is particularly popular among 35-54-year-olds (26% vs. 19% for the Coalition).
This surge in support hasn't been driven by policy changes or softening of Hanson's stances, as evidenced by her controversial burqa stunt in the Senate. One Nation's politics remain focused on two key issues: ending what they call "mass migration" and abandoning net zero and the Paris climate agreement.
The Coalition's recent shift on these issues, including abandoning its Scott Morrison-era net zero target and discussing immigration cuts, hasn't stemmed the tide. Barnaby Joyce, the former Nationals leader who joined One Nation in December, attributes this to the clarity of One Nation's positions, which he believes resonates with disenchanted voters.
One Nation's uncompromising stance on the Paris accord, in contrast to the Liberals and Nationals' commitment, is a key differentiator. Joyce explains, "We're more succinct, deliberate, and sometimes more binary, which some may disagree with. After the Bondi massacre, people said, 'Enough is enough.' They want us to fix problems, not make everyone happy."
One Nation's recent email to supporters boasts a 600% membership surge since the election, with branches in all 150 federal electorates. This rapid shift in voter sentiment is remarkable.
With One Nation leading the Coalition in primary votes for the first time, as shown by a January Newspoll, Hanson aims to transform her party into a viable alternative government. However, this goal is ambitious, as One Nation currently holds only one seat in the chamber where government is formed.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham cautions that reports of One Nation winning over 30 seats based on current numbers are unrealistic, given the party's historical struggles with preferences. However, he agrees with election analyst Antony Green that if One Nation maintains national support above 20%, it could secure over 35% support in certain rural and regional areas, making Hanson's candidates serious contenders.
Several seats are now in play, including the LNP-held seats of Wright, Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Wide Bay, and Dawson in Queensland, as well as Labor-held Blair outside Brisbane. Hanson also has her sights set on the Labor seats of Hunter, where One Nation finished second in 2025, and Paterson in New South Wales coal country.
The potential victory in Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Wide Bay, and Dawson would significantly reduce the Nationals' lower house seats, underscoring the threat One Nation poses to the country party. This threat may explain the party's increasingly right-wing positions, including on climate change.
One Nation's influence was a decisive factor in the Nationals' opposition to Labor's hate speech laws, which led to the political crisis that ended the Coalition. Flynn MP Colin Boyce, who is challenging David Littleproud for the Nationals leadership, warned that splitting from the Liberals would expose the party to a right-flank onslaught from One Nation.
While Boyce dismissed rumors of defecting to One Nation despite a surge in his central Queensland seat, he hinted at potential defections from others. Hanson's chief-of-staff, James Ashby, confirmed a recruitment drive and a significant announcement ahead of parliament's return, promising it would shock the public.
One Nation's history of disunity and disorganization in Canberra has hindered its ability to consolidate support beyond the far-right fringes. The current surge could lead to either chaos or a transformative shift in Australia's political landscape.
And this is the part most people miss: Will One Nation's rise lead to a more diverse and competitive political landscape, or will it further polarize Australian politics? The answer may lie in how the major parties respond to the challenges posed by this emerging force. What do you think? Is One Nation a force for positive change, or does it threaten the stability of Australia's political system?
